Sibley Creek Section 1 of 7 GDP
Is the Canadian economy at potential, growing, or contracting?
Latest release Monthly GDP by industry, TK
Six plates trace the state of Canadian real output: the monthly print, the quarterly cross-check, the decomposition of growth, the per-capita cut, the gap to potential, and the structural productivity question. Each plate carries a chart and a short reading of what it means today.
Plate 01 Headline real GDP, month-over-month
As of TK
Monthly GDP rose TK in TK, on consensus.
Monthly GDP advanced TK in TK, the second consecutive monthly gain and in line with the Bloomberg consensus. Goods-producing industries did the heavy lifting; services held steady. The year-over-year pace, near TK, still sits below the Bank's estimate of trend, leaving the gap to potential open.
Plate 02 Industry vs expenditure cross-check
As of TK (industry) / TK (expenditure)
Industry and expenditure cuts agree on direction this quarter.
The two cuts agree in direction with a level gap of roughly TK percentage point, well inside the typical reconciliation range. No editorial divergence to call: industry and expenditure are telling the same story about the latest quarter, even where the path of monthly prints differs.
Plate 03 Contributions to quarterly growth
As of TK
Quarterly growth led by consumption and exports; imports drag.
Real GDP advanced TK q/q SAAR, with consumption and exports each contributing roughly TK and imports subtracting TK. Inventories were the smallest of the six categories - a clean expansion profile rather than a stockbuild story. Business-vs-residential investment split is deep-dive territory.
Plate 04 Per-capita real GDP, year-over-year
As of TK
Per-capita output contracted for TK consecutive quarters.
Per-capita real GDP fell TK y/y, the TK consecutive quarterly contraction. Aggregate growth keeps holding up; per-capita keeps drifting. The divergence is structural rather than cyclical - population growth is doing the work the headline cannot.
Plate 05 Output gap vs BoC potential
As of TK; latest MPR vintage
Output sits TK below the BoC's central potential estimate.
The gap closed a touch to TK in the most recent quarter, but more slowly than the latest MPR projected. Potential growth has been revised down twice this year; the closing pace is the result of a slower numerator more than a faster denominator.
Plate 06 Labour productivity, business sector
As of Q4 2025
Productivity is the structural Canadian fight.
Business-sector labour productivity per hour rose 0.3% year over year in Q4 2025, the fifth consecutive quarter near zero. The long-run business-sector growth rate ran roughly 1% in the 1990s and 2000s; the last decade has averaged close to nothing. The level still sits where it did in mid-2018, which is the persistent gap to the United States that BoC speeches return to whenever the structural conversation comes up.