Is Canada's trade pivot working?
Latest release Merchandise trade, Aug 2026
It has started to, though gold flatters it. The US took 66.6% of goods exports in July, 6.4 points less than a year earlier, as sales to other markets rose 46%, far faster than US-bound sales. Precious metals shipped outside the US more than doubled over that year, and the share's fall from June owed as much to weaker US sales as to new buyers.
Plate 01 Goods trade balance (C$M) and US share of goods exports (%)
As of Aug 2026
The US export share fell in July even as gold shipments dropped.
The US took 66.6% of Canada's goods exports in July, 6.4 points less than a year earlier and close to March's low. Exports to the US fell 6.5% in the month while sales elsewhere reached their highest in data back to 1997. March's low rode a spike in bullion shipments to the UK; in July precious-metals exports fell by a fifth and the share dropped anyway.
Plate 02 Gold and PGM exports: total and UK destination, with gold price
As of Aug 2026
London still takes most of Canada's gold exports.
Canada exported C$6.8 billion of precious metals in July, half again as much as a year earlier, and the UK took 87% of it. Of June's C$8.6 billion, the UK took two-thirds.
Plate 03 Tariff-exposed sectors: US share of total exports, May 2025 vs May 2026
As of May 2026
Aluminum's May swing away from the US was a one-month spike.
Aluminum's US share fell to 62.9% in May 2026 from 88.7% a year earlier, the only large move among five export sectors. One month of unusually large shipments to other markets produced it, and the share had recovered to 81.5% by July. From July to July, copper, aluminum, and steel each moved away from the US by roughly 6 to 9 points, while autos and softwood barely shifted.