Is Canada's trade pivot working?
Latest release Merchandise trade, May 2026
Not really. The trade surplus widened again in May, but the US export share is back at 70.0% and looks little changed from a year ago. The apparent diversification pulse was still mostly gold routed to London; that flow is cooling, and among tariff-exposed sectors aluminum is the only clear shift away from the US while copper leaned more heavily toward it.
Plate 01 Goods trade balance (C$M) and US share of goods exports (%)
As of May 2026
The US export share is back near 70%.
Canada's US-bound export share fell to 66.0% in March, then rebounded to 69.2% in April and 70.0% in May. That is close to where it was a year earlier. The apparent diversification pulse was mostly gold: shipments to London surged, then cooled as the gold flow normalized.
Plate 02 Δ exports to US vs Δ exports to non-US, by NAPCS sub-chapter, May 2025 to May 2026
As of May 2026
Trade diversification is extremely limited.
Gold still accounts for the clearest non-US export growth, but the surge is fading: total precious-metals exports fell from C$8.0B in March to C$5.6B in May. At the same time, exports to the US rose to C$52.2B, a new high in the refreshed data. Strip out the gold corridor and the pivot still is not there.
Plate 03 Gold and PGM exports: total and UK destination, with gold price
As of May 2026
London is still buying most of Canada's gold, but the surge is cooling.
For decades, gold has been mined in Ontario and Quebec and sent straight to London's bullion banks, who store much of it in the Bank of England's vaults. The story is old; what changed was the scale of the flow. Canada sold C$5.6 billion of precious metals in May, down from C$8.0 billion in March, and the UK's share fell to 83% from 97%.
Plate 04 Tariff-exposed sectors: US share of total exports, May 2025 vs May 2026
As of May 2026
Aluminum is the only clear move away from the US.
Of the tariff-exposed sectors charted, aluminum is the only clear move away from the US between May 2025 and May 2026. Its US share fell from 88.7% to 62.9%, while steel, softwood, and autos each moved away by less than five points and copper moved further toward the US. One sector is moving; the rest are still mostly tied to the US market.