What's the state of Canada's housing market?
Latest release Home prices, Apr 2026
Home prices are still falling, but the decline is becoming less severe. The national MLS HPI was down 4.0% year-over-year in April, compared with 4.6% in March. Starts held near 260k on a 3-month average in May, mortgage arrears stayed at 0.28% in April, and affordability improved to 42.3% of household income in Q1.
Plate 01 MLS HPI, national + six CMAs, Y/Y
As of Apr 2026
The national price decline masks a widening split between Toronto-Vancouver and Montreal.
CREA MLS HPI national + six-CMA bulk file (April 2026 release). Index, Jan 2005 = 100.
The 4.0% national price drop conceals a sharper split: Toronto and Vancouver are leading the decline while Montreal is pulling the other way. Toronto sits at -6.3% year-over-year and Vancouver at -6.8%, both deeper than the headline, while Montreal prints +3.7% — a ten-point gap between the weakest and strongest major market. Calgary, Ottawa and Edmonton hover near flat. A national index that has been negative for twenty-five straight months is, beneath the surface, two different housing cycles running at once.
Plate 02 Housing starts, SAAR
As of May 2026
Starts have bounced back into their recent range, not rolled over.
Housing starts came in at 261.4K annualized in May 2026, down from 278.4K in April but still above the 2021-2023 average. The 12-month average sits near 261.3K, essentially in line with that recent-cycle norm. The starts tape is volatile month to month, but the smoother read is stabilization rather than a fresh rollover.
Plate 03 Sales-to-new-listings ratio, Canada
As of May 2026
Absorption is soft but has not tipped into a buyers' market.
The national sales-to-new-listings ratio sits at 49.2 in May 2026, up from 46.2 in April and inside the 45-to-65 band CREA describes as balanced. The resale index has eased to 85.6, leaving Canada in a soft absorption regime rather than an outright buyers' market. CMA-level 12-month resale counts to October 2025 point in the same direction: Toronto and Vancouver are absorbing the most volume relative to their listings overhang.
Plate 04 BoC qualifying mortgage payment to income
As of Q1 2026
Affordability is improving from peak but remains worse than prior stress episodes.
The BoC's qualifying-mortgage-payment-to-income ratio sits at 42.3% in Q1 2026, down from 43.1% in Q4 2025 and 54.5% at the Q3 2023 peak. The improvement traces to lower qualifying rates — the 5-year conventional has settled at 6.09% — partly offset by softer wage growth in the denominator. The index remains well above the 1989-1991 and 2007-2008 stress episodes; the 2022-2024 tightening cycle is still the binding historical anchor.
Plate 05 Mortgage arrears, household debt-service ratio
As of Apr 2026 (arrears) / Q1 2026 (DSR)
Mortgage stress is contained.
Realized distress remains contained: the bank mortgage arrears rate sits at 0.28% in April, well within its historical range and far below stress-episode peaks. The aggregate household debt-service ratio at 14.75% has edged up from late 2025 but remains below the 2024 cycle high. Households have absorbed the tightening cycle without breaking; the housing system isn't accelerating into a boom or cracking into a bust.