Sibley Creek Section 4 of 7 Housing
Is the rate-sensitive sector amplifying or dampening policy?
Latest release MLS HPI, TK
Seven plates trace the rate-sensitive sector: prices and activity, inventory and rents, the mortgage stack that carries the household balance sheet, the supply ratio against the population it has to absorb, and the affordability index that names what a new borrower would pay against current income.
Plate 01 MLS HPI benchmark, national + six CMAs
As of TK
Composite HPI slipped further into negative territory; Toronto and Vancouver lead the drift.
The national MLS HPI is at TK y/y, and the 6-month annualized print is softer still. Toronto and Vancouver are doing most of the drift; Calgary remains firm and Montreal is roughly flat. No national-average headline number is rendered - the CMA cuts tell the story.
Plate 02 Activity: starts, completions, permits
As of TK (starts) / TK (permits)
Starts (3-month MA) below trend; permits drifting lower as the leading indicator.
Starts on the 3-month moving average sit roughly TK below the post-2020 average; the permits series, which leads starts by a few months, has rolled over modestly. Completions are catching up to the surge in starts from two years ago, with the rental-vs-ownership split skewed to rental on the most recent vintage.
Plate 03 Inventory and absorption
As of TK
Sales-to-new-listings near TK; balanced-market floor in view.
The national sales-to-new-listings ratio sits at TK, below the post-2010 average and at the lower end of the band CREA calls balanced. Months of inventory by CMA cluster in a range of TK in Toronto and Vancouver and TK in Calgary. A constructed measure - methodology one click away.
Plate 04 Rent: CMHC RMS + CPI rent sub-series
As of TK (RMS) / TK (CPI)
Toronto and Vancouver rents loosened on the most recent monthly read.
The CMHC Rental Market Survey carries the levels and the vacancy direction; the StatCan CPI rented-accommodation sub-series carries the monthly velocity. Toronto and Vancouver are loosening; Calgary and Edmonton are still firmer. The annual RMS print remains the citable source on the level.
Plate 05 Mortgage stack snapshot
As of TK (BoC chartpack)
Renewal cohort over the summer is the load-bearing window.
The Bank's most recently published Residential Mortgage Market chartpack remains the cite-grade source on vintage and term composition. OSFI Bank Financial Data on residential exposures, plus CMHC RMIR and CBA chartered-bank arrears, complete the picture. Our own full reconstruction by vintage and term is Pillar A deep-dive territory, not basics.
Plate 06 Population-to-housing-stock ratio, by CMA
As of TK (annual)
Toronto and Vancouver still the tightest on the supply-response denominator.
Population per housing unit remains highest in Toronto and Vancouver, where the supply response has been slowest to arrive. Calgary and Edmonton have absorbed faster population growth at flatter ratios. Annual frequency; v1 ships with the methodology note on base year and intercensal interpolation.
Plate 07 Housing affordability: BoC qualifying payment to income
As of TK (quarterly)
Affordability index at TK; rate move TK doing the work on the most recent quarter.
The BoC's qualifying-mortgage-payment-to-income index, the flow-side complement to the stock-side mortgage snapshot, sits at TK. Direction is TK over the latest quarter; the dominant driver is TK (rate move / price move / income move). The 1989-1991, 2007-2008, and 2022-2024 episodes mark the historical anchors against which the current level reads.