Sibley Creek Research

Research

3 pieces

Long-form deep dives on the Canadian economy. Each piece takes one argument as far as the data lets it. Newest first.

  1. Mortgage renewal wall: has it peaked?

    The 2026 renewal cohort is the largest single tranche in the stack. We map where the residual transmission lands through 2027.

    Coming soon

  2. BoC vs. Fed: how far can the divergence run?

    TK basis points and counting. We trace the CAD, GoC curve, and credit channels that would force a back-off, and where the breakpoints sit.

    Coming soon

  3. Per-capita output: deceleration or weakness?

    The headline labour print is flattering. The per-capita series is not. We separate the population-deceleration story from the cyclical weakness story.

    Coming soon