Sibley Creek Section 6 of 7 Markets
What external winds are pushing on Canadian inflation, growth, and the CAD?
Latest release Daily close, TK
Six plates trace the external winds and the financial-system thermometer: the loonie, the GoC curve, credit spreads, energy prices, bank-stability metrics, and the financial conditions index.
Plate 01 USDCAD and the BoC effective rate (CEER)
As of TK
USDCAD at TK, near the TK percentile of the post-1990 distribution.
USDCAD is at TK on the week. On the post-1990 distribution, the current level sits near the TK percentile - weakened, but not at the historical stress lines (P95, P99). The full oil-and-rate-differential fair-value model defers to v1.5 given documented coefficient instability post-2016.
Plate 02 GoC curve: 2y / 5y / 10y / 30y
As of TK
GoC 10y at TK, spread to UST 10y still negative.
The GoC 10-year is at TK; the spread to the US 10-year remains negative on the order of TK, consistent with the divergent policy paths. Term premium at the 10y has bounced from the 2024 lows but remains compressed. We cite the Bank's published Canadian term-premium series directly; own ACM-style decomposition defers.
Plate 03 Credit spreads: US IG / HY OAS
As of TK
US IG and HY spreads compressed near cycle tights; Canadian-spread caveat preserved.
DATA NOT YET WIRED
US IG / HY OAS series not yet emitted by pipeline.
US investment-grade and high-yield OAS sit at the tighter end of their post-2018 range - the risk-appetite proxy is in benign territory. Canadian senior-unsecured-vs-GoC and Canadian IG / HY proxies require FSR scraping or own construction and defer to v1.5. v1 ships with the US comparator and an explicit Canadian-spread blind-spot caveat.
Plate 04 Energy prices: WTI, Brent, WCS, AECO
As of TK (daily) / TK (WCS monthly)
WTI at TK; WCS differential at typical monthly cadence.
WTI is at TK on the week, at TK; Brent has moved by a similar magnitude. WCS is shown at monthly cadence with the caveat against daily-comparison differential preserved. AECO gas is reported on a weekly bid-week summary where the cadence is available; otherwise defers.
Plate 05 Bank stability: PCL, CET1 vs DSB, uninsured residential
As of TK (earnings) / TK (OSFI)
CET1 ratios remain above the DSB buffer at TK; PCL builds modestly elevated.
DATA NOT YET WIRED
Big-Six bank-stability series not yet emitted.
Big-Six provisions for credit losses (PCL) builds remain modestly elevated relative to pre-2023 baselines but have not accelerated this quarter. CET1 ratios across the Big-Six cluster above the OSFI Domestic Stability Buffer at TK. Uninsured residential exposure from OSFI Bank Financial Data is shown on a semi-annual scrape.
Plate 06 Financial conditions index
As of TK
Financial conditions sit near the long-run easy end of the distribution.
DATA NOT YET WIRED
Financial-conditions composite not yet emitted.
If the Bank's published FCI is available via Valet (key to be probed) we anchor on it; if not, v1 ships with the Chicago Fed NFCI as a citable US comparator plus prose-level Canadian commentary. The signal across either anchor: conditions remain on the easier side of the long-run distribution. Own Canadian FCI composite construction defers to v1.5.