How tight is the labour market, and is per-capita output recovering?

Employment rose TK, TK relative to the Bloomberg consensus, with most of the print in part-time. The unemployment rate held at TK because the participation rate TK - a flatter headline than the underlying flows suggest. The employment rate continues its slow descent.

Aggregate employment is up TK y/y; employment per capita is down TK. Aggregate hours show the same divergence at a similar magnitude. The headline keeps flattering; the per-capita series tells the harder story. Pillar E resolves which side - population or weakness - is doing the work.

LFS all-employee, LFS permanent, SEPH, and the Bank's composition-adjusted LFS-Micro now sit between TK and TK year-over-year. Dispersion is wider than usual; the gap between the LFS-Micro adjusted series and the headline LFS reading tells a slower-easing story than the front-line number suggests. Services-ex-shelter CPI is the relevant comparator.

The vacancy rate (3-month moving average) has eased toward the bottom of its post-2017 range, and the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is now near TK, below the cycle peak but still above pre-pandemic. The Beveridge scatter has moved along the curve rather than off it - consistent with slack normalizing rather than a structural shift.

Permanent-resident inflows remain near the current plan's range. Non-permanent-resident inflows have rolled over since the October 2024 structural-break pivot. The supply trajectory now implied by the plan is materially flatter than the path realized through 2024 - the per-capita arithmetic depends on whether it holds.

Twelve months of movement separates the four-province slate: Ontario's unemployment rate has risen most among the four and now sits above the national average, while Alberta has tightened modestly on net. Quebec and BC remain within a tenth or two of where they were a year ago. The national average masks a clear east-west pattern in the dispersion.

EI regular beneficiaries TK to TK thousand, the cleanest demand-side read on labour-market softening and a leading cyclical indicator that typically inflects before the LFS unemployment rate. Movement here TK or TK the most recent LFS print; the divergence (or convergence) is the editorial frame.