Data commentary
Same-day notes on every major Canadian print. Distributed as PDFs to subscribers; visible here as they ship. Newest first.
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Canada adds 18k jobs as youth market improves.
Young people are starting to find jobs again in what's been a tough summer market. The World Cup effect may also be showing up, with much of the hiring happening in the hospitality industry.
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Canada posts widest trade surplus in four years.
May's report is a positive terms of trade story: Canada is getting a better deal from the world, selling at higher prices and buying at lower prices. Export diversification is still limited, with US-bound exports back to 70%.
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Canada's economy grows 0.5%, lifted by oil sands.
Canada's economy expanded 0.5% in April, its fastest pace in almost a year, cutting through the recession talk that followed last month's quarterly data. But more than half the gain came from a temporary rebound in oil sands extraction, and advance tracking already points to the bounce fizzling out in May.
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Inflation hits 3.2% as gasoline climbs.
Inflation broke out of the Bank of Canada's control band as gas prices rose to levels not seen since Russia invaded Ukraine. Still, with an Iran peace deal in the works and energy markets pulling back, the bank will be able to argue that it should continue to look through the shock.
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Retail sales rise 0.5% as gas prices still lead.
April data tells the same story as March: Canadians look like they're spending more, but they're mostly paying more for gasoline. Looking ahead, Canadians will start to see relief in prices at the pump, giving them a boost in overall spending power.
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The Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% and keeps its guidance.
The Bank of Canada is getting closer to ending its hold, and will likely not wait longer than September to pick a direction. Officials were clear that the most important indicators to watch are core inflation, the share of the CPI basket running above 3%, and medium-to-long-term inflation expectations.
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Oil exports boost Canada's trade surplus.
Canada is selling more to the world, with exports hitting an all-time high of C$75 billion in April. Still, the month's export gains were driven by higher sales to the US, going against Prime Minister Carney's aim to diversify trade.
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The Bank of Canada is set to hold in June.
We expect the Bank to hold for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday. Looking further out, markets are pricing too many hikes: our estimate of the Bank's internal rate path settles 25 to 50 basis points below what the market expects.
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Blowout Canada jobs report shows 88k gain.
Today's jobs data showed strength all across the board, making up most of the employment shortfall from the start of the year. This should dispel much of the recession talk we've heard since last week's GDP release.
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Two negative quarters of real GDP growth is just a rule of thumb.
The media often defines a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Since 1961 that rule has fired eight times — but Canada has had only five official recessions.
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Economy edges down 0.1% annualized in first quarter.
Sounding the alarm on a so-called 'technical recession' is premature, but further economic weakness this year could force the Bank of Canada back into easing mode.
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Retail sales jump 0.9%, driven by higher gas prices.
The Canadian consumer showed signs of weakness in March, with both core sales and volumes declining. The headline jump reflects higher prices at the pump, not a genuine increase in demand.
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Inflation rose to 2.8% on higher gasoline prices.
Headline wasn't so bad given the energy shock. Cores ticked down two-tenths each. The Bank should be able to stay on hold.